Before the crucial general elections that take occur the following year, Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is predicted to win three of the four important state elections in India.
The BJP is well-positioned in the states of Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Chhattisgarh. The Congress enjoys a commanding advantage in the southern state of Telangana.
In November, nearly 160 million people, or one-sixth of India’s electorate, may cast a ballot. The fifth state, Mizoram, has to have its votes counted by Monday.
Were these elections a trial run to assess if Mr. Modi could secure a historic third term in the national elections scheduled for early 2019? Stated differently, would the superior performance of the Congress have implied that the BJP was certain to win handily?
Not precisely. The Congress emerged victorious in three major state elections in 2018: Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Rajasthan. Three months later, the BJP emerged victorious in all state elections as well as the federal general election. In India, general elections are focused on national issues, whereas state elections are fought on issues unique to a state or region.
The results on Sunday are a major boost, even if Mr. Modi is already aiming for a record-breaking third term next year despite this dynamic.
The triumph is all the more noteworthy in light of the BJP’s history of losing state elections. With a substantial majority in parliament, the party has so far only been able to directly govern nine of India’s twenty-eight states. The rest formed coalitions with weaker allies.
The BJP seems to be virtually invincible in the “Hindi heartland” of northern and central India, having wrested power from the Congress in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh and retained control of Madhya Pradesh for an unprecedented fifth term. Ten states sent 225 MPs to the assembly in this Hindi-speaking area; the BJP won 177 of those seats in 2019.Nonetheless, the Congress gave the elections more weight.
A better performance would have been very positive and would have cemented the party’s position as the legitimate leader of the 28 opposition parties that make up the newly created INDIA alliance. In the Madhya Pradesh contest, the party appeared to be leading at one point, but the BJP gained ground and the party lost momentum. As in the past, the party is struggling to convert successes in state elections into victories in federal elections. Currently, it is failing to hang onto state administrations. There is more anti-incumbency feeling in Congress.
However, there is one positive aspect. The Congress took control of Telangana, a state in southern India where anti-incumbency sentiment was plaguing the local BRS party. Even after winning easily in Karnataka in May, it is still growing across southern India
So, according to the most recent surveys, what factors influenced people’s voting behavior? Voting behavior appears to be influenced not only by government experience but also by caste, identity, and the allure of the Hindu nationalism that the BJP promotes.
Mr. Modi promised throughout his campaign that for the next five years, 800 million of India’s poorest residents will receive free grain each month. One reason for his party’s resurgence in Madhya Pradesh is a program that gives qualified women from lower-class backgrounds a monthly allowance of 1,250 rupees [$16; £12]. Approximately 47% of the 50 million voters in the state are women.
This sort of welfare, which is implemented by both parties, drew criticism for being competitive populism from analysts, but it also brought attention to the precarious position of millions of Indians who depend on government support for survival.
Mr. Modi’s popularity appeared to be consistent after ten years in office, according to a national survey done in August by India Today magazine. More than half of those surveyed believed he ought to stay in charge of India.
The BJP has a formidable arsenal that includes vast resources, a massive, 24/7 party machinery, a government built on a solid welfare architecture, and a largely positive media landscape. It is scarcely shocking that Mr. Modi and his party appear to be favorites to secure an amazing third term in office the following year.